Sao Paulo (SBGR) Temperature Market Guide

São Paulo–Guarulhos International Airport (SBGR), also known as Governador André Franco Montoro International Airport, is the busiest airport in South America. Located in the municipality of Guarulhos, approximately 25 kilometers northeast of downtown São Paulo, the station sits at 2,461 feet (750 meters) elevation on the Brazilian Highlands.

The airport's position northeast of the São Paulo metropolitan area — the largest urban agglomeration in the Southern Hemisphere with over 22 million people — means it can experience slightly different conditions than the city center. The massive urban heat island of São Paulo influences local temperatures, particularly overnight lows.

Temperature observations are reported in Celsius and follow World Meteorological Organization standards. Brazil does not currently observe Daylight Saving Time.

São Paulo has a humid subtropical climate (Köppen: Cfa/Cfb) strongly moderated by its elevation. While the city lies within the tropics at 23°S — virtually on the Tropic of Capricorn — it experiences a more temperate climate than its latitude would suggest.

Key Climate Factors:

Elevation Moderation: At nearly 2,500 feet, São Paulo avoids the oppressive heat of coastal cities at the same latitude like Rio de Janeiro. Summer highs average around 27-28°C (80-82°F) rather than the mid-30s°C seen at sea level.

Urban Heat Island: The massive São Paulo metropolitan area generates significant urban heating. Guarulhos airport may differ from downtown readings by several degrees, particularly at night.

Cold Front Intrusions: Polar air masses from Patagonia periodically surge northward, bringing sudden temperature drops. These 'friagens' can lower highs by 10-15°C within 24 hours, especially from May through September.

Wet/Dry Seasonality: Summer months (December-March) are distinctly wetter with frequent afternoon thunderstorms. Winter (June-August) is drier with clearer skies. Cloud cover and rain directly affect daily highs.

Summer (December - February): Warm and wet with average highs around 27-28°C (80-82°F). Frequent afternoon thunderstorms can cool temperatures rapidly. Overcast days may only reach 22-24°C. Heat waves can push highs above 33°C (91°F). High humidity makes temperatures feel warmer than reported.

Autumn (March - May): Gradually cooling with decreasing rainfall. March still feels like summer; May begins to feel distinctly cooler. First significant cold fronts of the season arrive. Temperature variability increases as the frontal battleground shifts northward.

Winter (June - August): Mild and drier with average highs around 21-22°C (70-72°F). Clear skies predominate between cold front passages. Cold fronts can temporarily drop highs to 14-16°C (57-61°F). Frost is rare at the airport elevation but possible in surrounding areas. Shortest days with about 10.5 hours of daylight.

Spring (September - November): Rapid warming with increasing rainfall. Temperature swings remain common as cold fronts still penetrate from the south. October and November can see sudden jumps between winter-like and summer-like conditions.

Cold front timing is the most important variable for São Paulo temperature markets. Track frontal passages from southern Brazil — when a 'friagem' arrives, temperatures drop sharply and can remain suppressed for 2-3 days before recovering.

Summer afternoon thunderstorms are highly impactful. On days with widespread convective activity, highs will be reached before the storms develop (typically by early afternoon). On days when storms fail to materialize, temperatures continue climbing.

Remember the Southern Hemisphere seasons are reversed — São Paulo's summer runs December through February, and winter is June through August.

Brazil no longer observes Daylight Saving Time (abolished in 2019), simplifying time calculations. São Paulo is UTC-3 year-round.

INMET (Brazil's national meteorological institute) and CPTEC/INPE provide the best local forecast data. European models (ECMWF) generally perform well for the region.

São Paulo temperature markets on Polymarket resolve using Weather Underground historical data for SBGR (Guarulhos International Airport). Temperatures are recorded in Celsius.

The observation day follows standard conventions for the station's local timezone (BRT, UTC-3). Brazil does not observe Daylight Saving Time.

View São Paulo Weather History on Weather Underground →

Cold Front Intensity: Predicting how far north polar air masses will penetrate and how much they will cool São Paulo is the primary forecasting challenge. The magnitude of cooling varies significantly between events.

Convective Timing: Summer thunderstorm development is difficult to predict precisely. Small differences in atmospheric instability and moisture determine whether storms develop early (suppressing highs) or late (allowing full heating).

Urban Heat Island Effects: The airport may not perfectly represent metropolitan São Paulo temperatures. Traders should be aware of potential differences between Guarulhos readings and downtown conditions.

Limited English-Language Resources: The most detailed local forecasts and climate data are primarily available in Portuguese, which may create information asymmetry for international traders.

Model Performance: Global models can struggle with the complex terrain and land-sea interactions of southeastern Brazil. Regional models from CPTEC may provide better guidance for the São Paulo area.

Record High: 37.8°C (100°F) recorded at São Paulo in October 2014 during an exceptional heat wave.

Record Low: -2.1°C (28.2°F) recorded in the São Paulo metro area.

Historical Note: São Paulo's elevation prevents the extreme heat seen in other tropical cities. Temperatures above 35°C (95°F) are uncommon, occurring only during exceptional heat events. Conversely, the tropical latitude prevents sustained cold, with freezing temperatures being extremely rare at airport level.